"Trong the gioi ca cuoc the thao day soi dong, viec nam vung moi quan he giua phong do doi dau va ty le keo la chia khoa de nguoi choi co the dua ra nhung quyet dinh sang suot va gia tang co hoi chien thang. Day khong chi la viec du doan doi nao se thang, ma con la nghe thuat phan tich sau sac du lieu qua khu de hieu duoc ban chat thuc su dang sau nhung con so ma nha cai dua ra.

Mien tru trach nhiem

Hieu Ro Ban Chat Cua Ty Le Keo

ty le keo

Truoc khi di sau vao phan tich phong do, chung ta can hieu ty le keo (hay odds) la gi. Ty le keo khong phai la du doan tuyet doi ve ket qua tran dau, ma no the hien xac suat ma nha cai gan cho mot ket qua cu the, dong thoi la co so de xac dinh so tien thuong neu ban thang cuoc. Ty le keo luon bien dong, va su bien dong do phan anh nhung thong tin moi nhat ve tran dau, trong do, phong do doi dau dong vai tro cuc ky quan trong.



Phong Do Doi Dau: Lich Su Len Tieng



Phong do doi dau, hay Head-to-Head (H2H), la chuoi ket qua cac lan gap nhau truoc day giua hai doi bong. Day la mot yeu to cuc ky dang tin cay de danh gia tam ly va chien thuat ma cac doi ap dung khi cham tran nhau.



Tai sao H2H lai quan trong? Doi khi, co nhung ""khac tinh"" ma du mot doi dang co phong do cao ngat nguong, ho van thuong xuyen gap kho khan khi doi dau voi mot doi thu cu the. Dieu nay co the xuat phat tu su khac biet ve loi choi (vi du: doi bong phong ngu chat che thuong khac che doi tan cong bien), hoac don gian la yeu to tam ly da duoc hinh thanh qua nhieu mua giai.



Khi phan tich H2H, dung chi nhin vao so tran thang/thua. Hay chu y den:



1. Dia diem thi dau: Ket qua tren san nha va san khach trong cac lan doi dau truoc do co su khac biet lon khong?

2. Thoi diem gap nhau: Cac tran dau gan nhat dien ra khi nao? Phong do hien tai cua doi co tuong dong voi thoi diem ho thang/thua doi thu do khong?

3. Ty so cu the: Cac tran dau thuong co nhieu ban thang (Over) hay khan hiem ban thang (Under)?



Moi Lien He Mat Thiet Giua Phong Do va Ty Le Keo



Su thay doi trong ty le keo thuong phan anh chinh xac nhung gi thi truong dang nghi ve phong do doi dau cua hai doi.



Gia su Doi A dang co chuoi 5 tran thang lien tiep, phong do cuc ky an tuong. Tuy nhien, trong 5 lan gap Doi B gan nhat, Doi A toan thua. Khi hai doi nay chuan bi tai dau, nha cai se khong chi dua vao chuoi thang cua Doi A de day ty le keo cua ho xuong thap. Thay vao do, ty le keo chap cua Doi A co the se khong cao nhu ky vong, hoac ty le an cho Doi B se duoc giu o muc hap dan hon.



Ly do la nha cai da tinh toan yeu to tam ly va lich su doi dau vao muc cuoc ban dau. Neu ban thay ty le keo cua doi cua tren (doi manh hon ve phong do hien tai) khong ""sau"" nhu ban nghi, do co the la tin hieu manh me cho thay nha cai dang dat nang yeu to lich su doi dau.



Cach Van Dung Phong Do Doi Dau De ""Bat Keo"" Chuan Xac



De toi uu hoa quyet dinh ca cuoc dua tren ty le keo va H2H, ban can ap dung chien luoc sau:



1. Khong Bo Qua Boi Canh Hien Tai: Phong do doi dau quan trong, nhung no chi la qua khu. Neu Doi X da thang Doi Y 5 lan lien tiep trong 2 nam truoc, nhung hien tai Doi Y vua thay huan luyen vien, mua ve ba ngoi sao hang dau va Doi X lai dang gap khung hoang chan thuong, thi lich su cu co the khong con nhieu y nghia. Hay uu tien phong do 5-10 tran gan nhat.



2. Tim Diem Mu Cua Nha Cai: Doi khi, nha cai qua tap trung vao phong do hien tai ma quen di yeu to khac che tam ly. Neu ty le chap la 1.0 nhung lich su H2H cho thay doi cua duoi luon choi song phang hoac thang keo khi lam khach truoc doi cua tren, thi viec dat cuoc vao doi chap sau hon co the mang lai loi nhuan tot hon khi doi cua duoi thang keo.



3. Phan Tich Keo Phu (Keo Tai Xiu): Phong do doi dau dac biet huu ich khi xem xet keo Tai Xiu. Neu cac tran H2H gan day luon ket thuc voi ty so 1-0, 0-0 hoac 1-1, du hai doi hien tai deu co hang cong manh, ty le keo Tai Xiu co the bi day len cao. Day la co hoi de ban can nhac keo Xiu, vi thoi quen ""kho han ban thang"" khi doi dau nhau van co the lap lai.



Ket Luan



Thi truong ca cuoc luon van dong theo quy luat cung cau, va phong do doi dau chinh la mot nguon du lieu quan trong de hinh thanh nen ty le keo ma nguoi choi nhin thay. Viec ket hop nhuan nhuyen giua viec phan tich lich su cham tran va danh gia phong do thuc te cua cac doi truoc gio bong lan se giup ban tranh duoc nhung cai bay tam ly do nha cai giang ra. Hay la mot nguoi choi thong thai, luon dao sau du lieu de lam chu cuoc choi!"

https://www.vajiracoop.com/forum/topic/45352/tam-quan-trong-cua-viec-phan-tich-keo-goc

https://www.natthadon-sanengineering.com/forum/topic/60510/ty-le-keo-tai-xiu:-ban-chat-va-su-bien-dong

https://www.navacool.com/forum/topic/262753/tam-quan-trong-cua-viec-nam-vung-thong-tin-luc-luong-doi-bong